ESPN's FPI Shakes Up NFL Predictions, Broncos Regression Forecasted Amidst Fantasy Login Snags
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has released its 2026 NFL season simulation, forecasting a significant regression for the reigning AFC West champion Denver Broncos. Meanwhile, users of ESPN Fantasy Football are reporting widespread login issues as the season approaches.
The short version
- ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) for the 2026 NFL season predicts the Denver Broncos will finish 7-10 and miss the playoffs, tying with the Las Vegas Raiders.
- The FPI projects the Kansas City Chiefs to reclaim the AFC West with a 12-5 record and the Los Angeles Chargers to secure a playoff spot as the No. 5 seed.
- The Los Angeles Rams are ranked No. 1 in FPI power rankings, with the Detroit Lions also suggested as Super Bowl contenders by the simulation.
- ESPN's FPI has a noted history of past inaccuracies, including several incorrect playoff and division winner predictions for the 2025 season.
- Users are reporting various ESPN Fantasy Football login problems in August and September 2026, leading to troubleshooting guides from ESPN and other online sources.
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has dropped its full-season simulation for the 2026 NFL season, and the projections are already stirring significant debate, particularly regarding the Denver Broncos. Despite coming off a 14-win season and an AFC title game appearance in 2025, the FPI predicts a substantial regression for the Broncos. Concurrently, many ESPN Fantasy Football players are encountering login issues, adding a layer of frustration as the NFL season looms.
ESPN's FPI Projections Spark Debate
ESPN's FPI simulation, released in early September 2026, casts a skeptical eye on several teams. Most notably, the Denver Broncos, reigning AFC West champions, are predicted to finish a disappointing 7-10 and miss the playoffs, tying with the Las Vegas Raiders. This forecast comes despite Denver's dominant 2025 season, where they led the AFC with 14 regular-season wins. ESPN's Seth Walder noted in June 2026 that the FPI anticipated regression for the team.
Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs are projected to retake the AFC West, securing the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a 12-5 record. The Los Angeles Chargers are also predicted to make the playoffs as the No. 5 seed at 10-7, with the simulation even showing them defeating Kansas City 27-24 in a simulated divisional playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium.
Out of the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams are ranked No. 1 in ESPN's FPI power rankings with an FPI of 5.6, identified as a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The simulation also suggests the Detroit Lions could reach the Super Bowl. The Dallas Cowboys are projected to win 9.2 games, with a 51.9% chance of making the playoffs and a 33.9% chance of winning the NFC East, following a 7-9-1 finish in 2025.
How ESPN's FPI Works
ESPN describes FPI as a sophisticated prediction system for the NFL. Each team's FPI rating encompasses predicted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, measured by expected points added per play. Preseason ratings integrate previous years' efficiencies, the number of returning starters, and key changes to head coach, coordinator(s), or quarterback, as well as significant injuries.
A Look at FPI's Track Record
While FPI aims for precision, its past simulations have faced scrutiny for inaccuracies. The 2025 simulation, for instance, incorrectly projected the Indianapolis Colts to win the AFC South and the Tennessee Titans to earn a Wildcard berth, neither of which occurred. It also predicted the Dallas Cowboys would win the NFC East and the Philadelphia Eagles would miss the playoffs; instead, Philadelphia claimed the NFC East, and the Cowboys did not make the postseason. Other notable misses from 2025 include the Arizona Cardinals making the playoffs and winning a game, and the Buffalo Bills defeating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Super Bowl—none of these predictions materialized.
This history fuels skepticism, particularly around the Broncos' 7-10 projection, which many Broncos fans and analysts have dubbed
Frequently asked questions
How accurate has ESPN's FPI been in previous NFL seasons?
ESPN's FPI has a mixed track record, with notable inaccuracies in past seasons. For example, the 2025 FPI simulation incorrectly predicted the Indianapolis Colts to win their division and the Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs, among other misses.
What should I do if I'm experiencing ESPN Fantasy Football login issues?
ESPN suggests several troubleshooting steps for login problems, including checking your internet connection, force-quitting and reinstalling the app, clearing app data or cache, updating the app, or resetting your password. If issues persist, contacting ESPN support directly is recommended.
Reported by the RevReck Newsroom from the reporting linked below, with AI assistance in drafting, under editorial rules covering accuracy, attribution and what we will not publish. Read our editorial standards, or email corrections to operations@revreck.com.