When are the 2026 midterm elections?

The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.

How does Trump's current approval compare to his first term?

Pew Research Center tracking noted that Trump's current 30% approval rating is comparable to the lowest rating of his first term, which hit 29% in a survey conducted between January 6, 2021, and the end of his term.

Donald Trump's Approval Rating Hits Record Lows Ahead of 2026 Midterm Elections

President Donald Trump's job approval rating has fallen to historic lows across multiple national tracking polls, creating severe headwinds for Republicans ahead of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections. With control of Congress at stake, national surveys show broad voter dissatisfaction spanning economic issues, inflation, and executive governance.

What do the latest national polls show?

Individual national tracking figures vary slightly depending on the pollster and modeling adjustments, but multiple established outlets reported significant declines in mid-October 2026. A Fox News poll conducted October 9 through 12 among 1,202 registered voters found Trump's approval rating hit a new low of 36%, with 64% disapproving. Meanwhile, a Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28 through October 4 among 5,062 U.S. adults recorded Trump's approval at 30%, with 68% disapproving.

Additional national surveys reflected similar numbers:

AP-NORC (Oct. 8–12): 35% approve, 64% disapprove.
Reuters/Ipsos (Sept. 30–Oct. 5): 32% approve, 65% disapprove.
CBS News/YouGov (Sept. 30–Oct. 2): 39% approve, 61% disapprove.

National polling averages from mid-October 2026 reflected the broader trend. The RealClearPolitics average placed Trump's approval between 38.6% and 38.8%, The New York Times average stood at 37%, and the Silver Bulletin average recorded 37.5% approval with a net disapproval of -22.4.

Which specific issues are driving the decline?

Voter disapproval is heavily concentrated on economic policy, inflation, and trade management. According to the Fox News poll, disapproval ratings on specific issues reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs, and 64% on foreign policy, with Trump's inflation approval standing at just 22%. Fox News noted that this inflation approval figure is 7 percentage points lower than Joe Biden's inflation approval rating in 2022 ahead of that year's midterms.

The Silver Bulletin average on October 15 reported issue net approvals at -28.7 for trade, -29.9 for the economy, and -47.5 for inflation. Additionally, the Pew Research Center survey reported that only 35% of Americans hold confidence in Trump's economic policy decisions, 21% have confidence in his ability to bring the country closer together, and 69% have little confidence in his ability to keep business interests separate from presidential decision-making.

How are state-level races and the midterms reacting?

The drop in presidential approval coincides with measurable Democratic momentum in state-level and congressional tracking. Cygnal and Fox News polls reported that Democrats led the generic congressional ballot by 9 percentage points, while an Economist/YouGov poll showed Democrats ahead by 11 points. USA Today highlighted competitive Senate and state-level contests, including Texas where Democrat James Talarico led Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by 2 percentage points in a Marist University poll, and Kansas where Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton held a 3-point lead over incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall in a YouGov survey.

A Civiqs state-by-state tracker showed Trump maintaining positive net approval in only 10 states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming, with Wyoming the highest at +16%. Montana was evenly split at 46% approve and 46% disapprove.