China Exports and Imports Soar in October as Trade Surplus Narrows Sharply

China's goods exports soared 35.2% year-on-year in dollar terms in October, beating the Reuters poll expectation of 33.5% while imports jumped 41.6% to narrow the monthly trade surplus to about $105 billion. CNBC, investingLive, AP News, and Yahoo Finance reported the figures, which highlighted how global demand for Chinese-made artificial intelligence hardware continues to prop up the economy despite weak domestic consumer spending.

What drove the October trade figures?

Export growth exceeded expectations even as official PMI data showed factory activity unexpectedly shrank in October and a China Beige Book survey noted that new domestic and export orders slowed compared to a year earlier. According to CNBC, global demand for AI-related hardware—including printed circuit boards, memory chips, and optical transceivers—powered the export numbers.

Import growth surged at its strongest pace since May 2021, accelerating from 31% in September. CNBC reported that high-tech product imports surged 72% by value year-on-year, while crude oil, LNG, and coal imports grew about 41%, 50%, and 60% respectively. Meanwhile, investingLive noted that detailed data remained required to fully clarify whether the import surge was driven primarily by firmer domestic demand or rising global commodity prices.

How do regional trade balances look?

China's bilateral trade data with major Western economies showed significant expansion alongside widening regional surpluses:

• United States: Exports soared 32.9% by value year-on-year and imports grew nearly 35%, creating a $32.7 billion surplus. U.S.-bound shipments grew 12.1% this year as of October, following a low base last year when shipments plunged 20% on dramatic tariff hikes.
• European Union: Shipments grew 24.4% while imports dropped more than 4% in October, widening the monthly surplus to $33.4 billion.

Despite the monthly narrowing of the surplus to $105 billion or $105.3 billion—its lowest level since April and short of the ~$126 billion forecast compiled by investingLive—the year-to-date trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion for the first ten months of the year. ING Bank Chief Economist for Greater China Lynn Song told CNBC that China remains well on track for a new record high for the trade surplus by year-end despite the October miss, following a record $1.2 trillion surplus for full-year 2025.

What policies and meetings are coming next?

President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump are scheduled to meet for a third time this year at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, next week, where trade is expected to feature prominently. The extended U.S.-China trade truce, which includes export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and special port fees, is set to expire in January 2027.

Meanwhile, the European Union's agreement to cap Chinese hybrid vehicle imports at 350,000 cars per year is scheduled to take effect on December 1, 2026. Citi Research analyst Yuanliu Hu noted to CNBC that additional EU trade measures targeting China look plausible, while Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad Setser stated that Europe is still a long way from a coherent trade and industrial policy regarding autos and overall trade with China.

Looking further ahead, Capital Economics China Economist Nguyen Hoang Nam estimated a seasonally adjusted 2% month-on-month fall in exports, telling CNBC that momentum looks to have slowed. Citi Research projects that overall export growth could moderate to 8% in 2027 as favorable base effects fade and global AI investment moderates.

This is educational information, not legal, financial, tax, or investment advice.